The military operations launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28 have led to a rapid escalation in the Middle East, the consequences of which are already being felt in various sectors of the global economy.
As Yeniavaz.com reports, citing Forbes, Iran's effective closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, along with retaliatory strikes on military bases, diplomatic missions, and energy infrastructure in the region, has further exacerbated the situation. Although official statements claim the strait has been reopened to some countries, in practice, maritime shipping has virtually ceased, paralyzing one of the main arteries of global trade.
The closure of this narrow waterway, through which approximately 20 percent of the world's energy supplies passes, has caused sharp fluctuations in the oil market. The price of Brent crude oil exceeded $100 for the first time since 2022, while Gulf countries were forced to curb production due to logistical difficulties. The current disruption is already considered one of the largest in the history of the oil market. However, the consequences of the crisis are not limited to the energy sector and are leading to deeper systemic problems.
According to the United Nations, approximately one-third of the world's fertilizer supplies—approximately 16 million tons per year—are transported through this route. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts agricultural production by interrupting this vital supply chain. Limited access to fertilizer during the planting season is already increasing the risk of reduced yields in many countries, which could lead to food shortages in the coming months.
The situation is particularly critical for African countries. Around 90 percent of fertilizer used in this region is imported, and key agricultural products, especially crops such as corn, which require high levels of nitrogen, are highly sensitive to fertilizer shortages. Experts estimate that if the current crisis continues, yields for some crops could decline by up to 50 percent in the first harvest, posing serious humanitarian risks for countries already facing food insecurity.
The management of Yara International, one of the world's leading fertilizer producers, openly describes the situation as a "catastrophe." The company notes that the industry is simultaneously facing two serious challenges: disruptions in raw material supplies from the Persian Gulf countries, and a sharp rise in gas prices, the primary energy source for fertilizer production. These factors combined are driving up fertilizer prices, increasing agricultural costs, and, consequently, directly impacting the final price of food products.
The crisis is not limited to Africa. Countries in South and Southeast Asia, such as India, Bangladesh, and Thailand, are also heavily dependent on fertilizer imports from the Persian Gulf and are currently facing multiple economic pressures. Farmers in these countries are facing rising import costs due to both rising fertilizer prices and the strengthening US dollar amid geopolitical risks. Moreover, even if alternative supply sources are found, rising shipping insurance and fuel costs further increase transportation costs.
Countries in the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, have already begun seeking alternative supply routes by land and air, but these routes cannot replace maritime transport in either volume or cost. The geographic and logistical significance of the Strait of Hormuz is so great that there is virtually no viable alternative.
While US President Donald Trump is considering military escorts for tankers as a solution, it remains unclear when and to what extent this will be implemented. Experts note that the effectiveness of such an operation is questionable given the intense shipping traffic in the region and the existing military risks. Moreover, the Iranian leadership's open statement of its intention to continue the blockade of the Strait diminishes hopes for a quick resolution to the crisis. The current situation demonstrates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional military tactic, but a massive strategic shock affecting the global economic system. While rising energy prices are already being felt, the underlying threat could become more pronounced in the coming months. The potential for reduced agricultural production due to fertilizer shortages and a logistical crisis could lead to a sharp rise in food prices worldwide and an increased risk of famine for millions of people. In this context, the current crisis is increasingly moving beyond a regional conflict and becoming a global humanitarian threat.
Elnur Ali
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